The Met Office has warned that the ‘largest El Nino in living memory’ is currently developing over the Pacific Ocean. This ‘unprecedented’ event is expected to cause extreme weather and increased rainfall across the UK (and the rest of northwest Europe) this autumn and early winter.
El Nino is a natural climate pattern that is declared when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above the-long term average. This weather event occurs roughly every two to seven years and impacts the rainfall patterns and average temperatures across the globe. Current measurements predict that sea temperatures could rise by more than 3°C in the coming months, meaning that the developing El Nino is forecast to be ‘the largest such event since the 19th century’.
More heat is released from the ocean into the atmosphere during El Nino events, thus increasing the global average temperatures and impacting rainfall patterns. 2027 is now forecast to be the warmest year on record as result of this extreme weather event.
Due to the scorching summer and lack of rainfall that the UK has experienced this year, over half the country is officially in a drought. And despite the impending wet weather, forecasters and officials have warned that it could take months of sustained rainfall before rivers and reservoirs are sufficiently replenished.
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event”, said Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office. He added: “I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts. A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between one to 2°C, with 2°C being a really big event. This implies that is the forecast is accurate – and other forecast systems show similar extreme values – then 2026 will far exceed out recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences.”
Dr Nick Dunstone, a science fellow at the Met Office, said: “During large El Niño events, significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Niño. Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed +1.5C above the preindustrial period.”
