I’d keep those brollies nearby, folks, because the ‘unprecedented’ El Niño is continuing to develop in the Pacific Ocean – and it has just exceeded previous records, making it the ‘strongest event in the observational record’. Scientists have been closely monitoring the phenomenon for many months now, and they have confirmed that sea-surface temperatures have reached a record-breaking high.
As of September 19, daily sea-surface temperatures in a key region of the central equatorial Pacific have reached 3.05°C above the 1991-2020 average, thus surpassing the previous daily benchmark of 3.02°C which was set during the ‘very strong El Niño’ back in 2015. The currently-developing El Niño is highly likely to be the largest in at least 1000 years.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally-occurring climate phenomenon that is declared when sea-surface temperatures in certain regions rise significantly above average. This weather event occurs roughly every two to seven years, and tends to last for around a year, affecting atmospheric circulation patterns, increasing temperatures, and impacting rainfall across the globe.
How is this El Niño expected to affect the UK?
Whilst the UK sits thousands of miles away from the tropical Pacific, the weather here can still be impacted by the event. The El Niño is likely to cause wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe through autumn and early winter. The El Niño’s effects on the UK are less certain and trickier to predict than in other regions, but the Met Office will be keeping an eye on the event as it evolves and updating forecasts accordingly.
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Prediction at the Met Office, said: “We have been signalling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event. The fact that it has already exceeded previous records – with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year – shows the enormity of this El Niño. Scientists are still assessing whether the impacts will be in proportion to its magnitude, but we are already seeing expected effects worldwide.”
